文章来源:数码多|2017年精准一句诗2017年精准一句诗发布时间:2019-11-13 16:04:30  【字号:      】


  A summer of shaky debate performances morphed into an autumn dominated by his sons lucrative business interests in Ukraine. A lackluster fundraising quarter led to broken promises on the role of outside money in politics. Yet throughit all, former Vice President Joe Biden has maintained a steady general election lead over President Trump.

  A new FoxNewspollshows Biden beating Trump by a healthy 12 points among registered voters, a wider margin than a month ago and the widest margin of any Democrat in the field. All this as the national debate over Hunter Biden is guaranteed to keep churning as long as impeachment is afoot.

  Much like the marquee Hillary Clinton versus Rudy Giuliani match-up prognosticatorspredictedin the fall of 2007, the odds of a Biden-Trump showdown are diminishing as the former vice presidents path to the nomination gets murkier by the day.


  Why? Its not his advanced age or his sons foreign business activities, although neither issue is without peril. Its not his so-called moderate ideology, or the fact that his campaign is running on financial fumes.

  Joe Biden has a Rudy Giuliani problem and its got nothing to do with Ukraine.

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  First, take a step back. Since the day he launched his campaign in April, Biden has grounded his entire candidacy on electability, with a dash ofthrowback to the golden Obama years. He argues he is the best equipped to make Trump a one-term proposition. Never mind that much of the rest of thefield also beats Trump in national polls, albeit by tighter margins.

  Biden has also struggled to articulate a discernible reason to support him. Electability does not make for a compelling long-term message. Its a process argument rather than a substantive one.

  With voters, substance trumps process every time. Its why Donald Trump is urging his GOP allies inimpeachment to move on from their process arguments and defend him on the merits of what he did.

  Move beyond the national numbers and the warning signs are flashing for Team Biden. Hes falling further behind in the first two states of Iowa and New Hampshire. A pair of polls showed him slipping to fourth place in Iowa amid a steady drumbeat of support for South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

  In New Hampshire, consideringthe hometown advantage enjoyed by neighboring senators from Vermont and Massachusetts, the Granite State was always going to be an uphill climb for Biden.


  Recent political history teaches us that its very difficult to win later primaries after losing the early ones. During the 2008 Republican primary, Rudy Giuliani enjoyed a wide national lead throughout most of 2007. He promised a national 50-state campaign in the general election where places like New Jersey, New York and Connecticut could no longer be taken for granted in the Democratic column.

  During the primaries, Giuliani wrote off theinitial contests and placed all his chips on Florida. The rest of the field duked it out in the earlier states, notching wins and dominating media coverage. By the time the Sunshine State rolled around, Giulianis moment had passed, and he called it quits after a disappointing third-place finish.

  Unlike the Giuliani example, its unclear just where Biden is planning to try and plant his flag. Yes, hes ahead in Nevada and South Carolina right now, but those leads could evaporate after heavy early losses, especially if Sanders throws in the towel and his supporters move over to Warren.

  Back then, Giuliani focused relentlessly on national security, reminding voters of his leadership bona fides from Sept. 11to make the case that he was best equipped to become a wartime commander in chief. Giulianis message was so disciplined that one of the Democratic contenders quipped, Theres only three things he mentions in a sentence; a noun, a verb, and 9/11.


  It was Joe Biden who delivered that line a dozen years ago. Ironically, he could apply the same zinger to his own campaign today if he replaced 9/11 with Barack Obama.

  Neither reminiscing about the past nor electability arguments can compete with early-state momentum. With the Iowa caucuses less than three months away, that spells trouble for Joe Biden.